Re: Trump
Posted: Apr 19th, '16, 16:37
Yeah, I think that whole 7-11 thing was a stupid gaffe. We all have brain farts sometimes. Normally I don't care about them much....
But it's also really funny watching how twisted up Trump gets when people focus on the small stuff. Seems to really bother him. So that's pretty satisfying....
Anyway, today is the New York primary! So Trump needs 50% of the vote or more to get all the delegates he wants. He's almost definitely going to win, but Cruz and Kasich have been trying to keep him below the 50% benchmark by focusing on upstate New York (which tends to be either extremely rural or extremely industrialized, older, more conservative, heavily armed and a whole hell of a lot whiter than the southern part of the state--where NYC is) and by identifying and appealing to the limited number of Republicans living in hard core blue districts--groups that may number in the thousands, but still have delegates to allocate.
Trump needs a big win today. First of all, expectations are high and everyone knows that's a recipe for disaster in politics. If you spend all your time saying "I'm going to win 100%!" but then you only win 99% the story in the media the next day will be that you didn't do as well as you expected, and why is that? On the other hand, if you say "I'm going to win 50%" (even though, thanks to your private polling data, you know you're going to come in between 80-100%) and then you win 99% the story in the media the next day will be that you exceeded your wildest expectations. Which, as a campaigning politician, is the best story you could hope for.
Not that Trump is aware of this basic Politics 101 concept. Anyway, if he doesn't get the huge win that he needs it will damage the narrative he's trying to create that he is the rightful front runner and the establishment is trying to steal the nomination from him (which, I mean, they are, but can you blame them?).
Also--and maybe this is just the inner New Yorker I inherited from my Jewish immigrant Queens-based relatives--I really want to see New York hand Cruz his ass in a hat. I have not appreciated him campaigning through the deep south by using the phrase "New York values" as a code for "Jews and gays." And then having that be a bad thing that frightens his voters. Nope. Have not enjoyed that. Looking forward very much to NYC kicking his ass straight to Philly--let the City of Brotherly Love deal with his creepy melted marionette face.
But it's also really funny watching how twisted up Trump gets when people focus on the small stuff. Seems to really bother him. So that's pretty satisfying....
Anyway, today is the New York primary! So Trump needs 50% of the vote or more to get all the delegates he wants. He's almost definitely going to win, but Cruz and Kasich have been trying to keep him below the 50% benchmark by focusing on upstate New York (which tends to be either extremely rural or extremely industrialized, older, more conservative, heavily armed and a whole hell of a lot whiter than the southern part of the state--where NYC is) and by identifying and appealing to the limited number of Republicans living in hard core blue districts--groups that may number in the thousands, but still have delegates to allocate.
Trump needs a big win today. First of all, expectations are high and everyone knows that's a recipe for disaster in politics. If you spend all your time saying "I'm going to win 100%!" but then you only win 99% the story in the media the next day will be that you didn't do as well as you expected, and why is that? On the other hand, if you say "I'm going to win 50%" (even though, thanks to your private polling data, you know you're going to come in between 80-100%) and then you win 99% the story in the media the next day will be that you exceeded your wildest expectations. Which, as a campaigning politician, is the best story you could hope for.
Not that Trump is aware of this basic Politics 101 concept. Anyway, if he doesn't get the huge win that he needs it will damage the narrative he's trying to create that he is the rightful front runner and the establishment is trying to steal the nomination from him (which, I mean, they are, but can you blame them?).
Also--and maybe this is just the inner New Yorker I inherited from my Jewish immigrant Queens-based relatives--I really want to see New York hand Cruz his ass in a hat. I have not appreciated him campaigning through the deep south by using the phrase "New York values" as a code for "Jews and gays." And then having that be a bad thing that frightens his voters. Nope. Have not enjoyed that. Looking forward very much to NYC kicking his ass straight to Philly--let the City of Brotherly Love deal with his creepy melted marionette face.